Ryan Babel could face disciplinary action from The Football Association (FA) after the Liverpool striker posted a Photoshopped image on Twitter of referee Howard Webb wearing a Manchester United shirt. The image was posted in jest after Webb awarded Manchester United a penalty versus Liverpool. The decision was a poor one by Webb after TV [...]
EPL Talk
If I had to bet on one starting goalie from last year posting a lower save percentage in 2010-11 than he did in 2009-10, I’d pick Jimmy Howard.
All the signs are there for a regression. First of all, Howard outperformed on special teams. He had a very good save percentage on the penalty kill (.905, 4th among starting goalies), and he faced a low percentage of shots against on the PK to begin with (16.0%). He only let in one shorthanded goal on 50 shots against while Detroit was on the power play. Put all that together, and the result is that Howard’s even strength save percentage (.925) was nearly equal to his overall save percentage (.924), something that is rare and generally not sustainable in the long run.
For any goalie with essentially one NHL season under his belt, it’s best to look at their minor league performance to see if there is a track record of success. Howard played four full seasons in the AHL from 2005-06 to 2008-09, where he compiled a .911 save percentage on 5,324 shots. That’s not bad, but it’s nothing that suggests future NHL stardom either. Howard’s backups combined for .895 on 4,171 shots, so perhaps there is some evidence that Grand Rapids was not the best defensive team or took a lot of penalties or has a miserly official scorer, but I still don’t think Howard’s minor league performance is at a sufficient level to foreshadow a future elite NHL starter.
None of Howard’s AHL seasons were more than .005 above or below that .911. There’s not a clear improvement trend in his numbers, which means that I wouldn’t put it at all out of the realm of possibility that he might be a similar goalie in skill level now to what he was the age of 23 or 24. His ascension probably had as much or more to do with spots opening up ahead of him in the organization as with the development in his own game.
It’s pretty obvious that the Red Wings themselves didn’t think Howard was anything special until very recently. Why else would they have signed Ty Conklin in the summer of 2008 to back up Chris Osgood during the 2008-09 season? Howard was 24 years old with three full seasons in Grand Rapids under his belt at that point, and his own team still didn’t rate him as good enough to be an NHL backup. Having said that, the Red Wings are known for their patience in developing prospects, so perhaps it was entirely a matter of maximizing Howard’s playing time, but regardless he didn’t exactly force his way into the NHL either.
I’m not willing to make the argument that there are strong team effects boosting Howard’s performance without a lot more data, but on the other hand I don’t rate playing behind Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg to be one of the league’s toughest assignments either.
Excluding the 2009-10 regular season, Howard’s career NHL record is .912 on 614 shots. That’s a tiny sample, but I think it’s still probably more representative of Howard’s true skill. Puck Prospectus‘ VUKOTA has Howard projected at a .914 save percentage next year. Guys who have great years are likely to regress somewhat the following year, that’s just basic sports statistics. If they don’t have an established track record of success either, then the indicator lights are flashing even more strongly. I’d say Howard is more likely to have a below-average save percentage (say, .905-.910) than he is to match his .924 this coming season.
There is of course some small chance that Howard either legitimately became great or his run of luck continues and he remains near the top of the save percentage leaderboard, but it’s certainly not the way to bet. It will be interesting to see whether his performance over the next couple of seasons indicates that he is anything special or just another guy at the NHL level.
I’ve already weighed in on the departure of Jayson Werth, who signed a 7-year deal with the Nationals today. Now here’s a different take, from Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Phil Sheridan, who thinks losing Werth is no big deal:
Sorry, but the Phillies would have been idiots to give Werth that deal. Those of you who bemoan their commitment to the aging Raul Ibanez should fast-forward to 2015, when an aged Phillies team would have been locked into two more years with a broken-down Werth. The GM would be cursing his predecessor – no way Ruben Amaro Jr. is still here if he tossed that contract Werth’s way – for tying his hands with such a short-sighted deal.
That makes perfect sense. It is rarely a good idea to sign a player who is entering his decline phase to a 7-year contract.
Too bad Sheridan doesn’t apply that same logic consistently to all players. He applauded when the Phillies signed Ryan Howard to an even more expensive contract extension, saying:
“(Howard) continues to try to work to be a better player. This kind of talk galls those who worship the almighty stat to the exclusion of all else. Howard’s entire career rattles their cages, which is one more reason to enjoy his work.”
I just don’t understand how signing Werth to a long, expensive deal is insane and signing Howard to a similar deal is smart.
Can somebody explain this to me?
Tagged: Contract, Jayson Werth, Phil Sheridan, Ryan Howard
Dwight Howard has some fun at the expense of Arizona Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson. But before you judge Howard for poking fun at the beleaguered QB, just know that he even sings for the children. So take this lightly.
Who knows what prompted this impersonation, but we’re all entertained by it. The countdown to the Coors Light commercial can officially start now – Anderson should smile, about the royalties to which he’ll eventually be entitled.
[h/t SB Nation]
Maybe the Pistons can still contain Dwight Howard, after all.
It wasn’t long ago the Pistons gave Howard – and by extension the Magic – more trouble than any team in the NBA. Detroit limited him while defending him one-on-one. That allowed the other four Pistons on the court to excel.
Often, the latter part of that equation – the other four players dominating – was lost in the discussion. After all, it’s understandable slowing the game’s top center steals the headlines.
But the other side was essential to all those wins, and that should be clear after the Pistons’ uneven defensive performance tonight led to a 90-79 defeat – their fourth straight loss to the Magic.
The glass-half-full version of the defense: Ben Wallace and Greg Monroe played excellently on Dwight Howard inside.
The glass-half-empty version: the rest of the team struggled to defend the perimeter.
This was the Pistons’ best game for interior defense of the year. Wallace often kept Howard a few feet farther from the basket than he’d like to be and did so on his own. Monroe needed more help at times, but his relentless energy forced a couple steals and prevented Howard from getting comfortable.
Together, they held Howard to season lows for points (nine) and free-throw attempts (two). Howard also matched a season high with six turnovers.
Tonight should serve as a reminder of what the Pistons have defensively – Wallace can still bring it – and what they will have – Monroe always played hard, and once he adds a little strength, look out. I didn’t think Monroe was ready for a matchup like this. He was.
But tonight unfortunately also serves as a remind of what the Pistons have: a poor perimeter defense.
The Pistons entered the game with the league’s best 3-point defense (.301) – a fool’s gold stat. Detroit’s opponents don’t need to shoot a lot of 3-pointers.
The Pistons’ opponents make 17.2 shots at the rim per game, second most in the league behind the Knicks. When you consider how much faster the Knicks play than the Pistons, Detroit is probably the worst team in the league at defending the rim.
So, teams only shoot 3-pointers against the Pistons when the primary option – dunks and layups – fails. Credit Detroit for taking away Orlando’s primary option, but when push came to shove, the Pistons got shoved. The Magic made 10-of-24 3-pointers.
Despite the 11-point margin of defeat, the Pistons really made Orlando earn the victory. For a half, they looked like the team they used to be. For a half, they looked like the team they are.
I suppose, that’s as much as we can hope for in games like these.
Check back for more thoughts on tonight’s game.
Share:
Former NBA star and current ESPN Analyst Jalen Rose offers his take on the five most influential Twitter users of the week. They could be players, media personalities, or something else entirely – as long as they’re impactful and controversial, they’re in his starting five.
SportsGrid